Editors Note: Back in early April I penned an entry called “Four Reasons the Detroit Tigers will continue to struggle.” The entry was posted after the Tigers winless six game homes stand to start the season. Just over a month later they’re still struggling. To continue the theme I’ve decided to revisit my four points. My original post is in italics, my current comments follow in regular text.
1. Career Years: It’s unlikely Magglio Ordonez will repeat his numbers of last season. He’s a great hitter, but not a .363 hitter. He’s also 34 years old. Ditto for Curtis Granderson. Granderson will likely not challenge the 20/20/20/20 he put up last year. Nor is he likely to match the .302 batting average that was forty points higher than he hit the previous season. Yet another ditto for Placido Polanco who hit forty-six points higher than his previous season (.295 in 2006 versus .345 in 2007). In all the Tigers have three regulars who hit more than forty points higher than the previous season— all significant increases over their career averages. They will be hard pressed to repeat these numbers. As a result it’s possible that three of the top five hitters in the Tigers lineup are due for large decreases in average over the previous season.
Although he’s picked up his numbers of late Polanco is only hitting .277, sixty-eight points lower than his average a season ago. I didn’t put Verlander in the mix here but he’s gone from a Cy Young contender to one of the worst starters in the game thus far. His numbers aren’t quite Zito-like, but they’re not far off. Curtis Granderson has struggled with his batting average since his return but his extra-base hit and OPS numbers are solid. Magglio Ordonez is putting up good numbers but nothing like last year. He’s projecting for just over 100 RBI, well short of his near 140 from last year. His average is also down about fifty-five points from last year.
2. Age: The Tigers are OLD. Gary Sheffield is 39 and Ivan Rodriquez is 36. It’s possible one of the two will begin to finally show his age this season. Pudge is in his 18th season as a major league catcher, which is amazing. Sooner or later the physical toll is going to catch up with him. The same goes for Todd Jones who is also 39. These guys are spring chickens compared to Kenny Rogers who is 43. To recap, two of the teams top hitters, a top starter and the Tigers closer are all over 36 with most of them near forty. They are closer in age to AARP than Carlos Gomez.
Gary Sheffield may be reaching the end. The Tigers would be better off going out and signing Barry Bonds and parting ways with Sheffield. Sheff is hitting .208 with a measly 2 HR’s and 8 RBI in just under one-hundred at bats. Pudge has decent numbers, but no where near his typical statistics. He’s hitting thirty points below his career average (.270 vs .302) with only one HR in 122 at-bats. Kenny Rogers has been largely dreadful with a 5.82 ERA and only 43 innings pitched in 8 starts (taxing the bullpen as predicted). Todd Jones has been decent, but hasn’t really had an opportunity to save many games, with only five saves this season. The Tigers average age is 31.4 years, which is a nearly five years older than the Twins average age.
3. The Pen: The Tigers bullpen is a train wreck. Fernando Rodney is on the DL. Joel Zumaya could be out half the season and very well may never recapture the velocity he had in the past. Todd Jones has been a threat to implode for several years and may finally do so this season. Jason Grilli is being used in key setup situations— and getting lit up in said situations. The Tigers bullpen is mediocre at best. It pales in comparison to Boston, New York, Cleveland and Anaheim. For this reason alone the Tigers are probably not legitimate contenders.
It’s been an up and down year for the pen with several injuries to contend with. Jason Grilli was brutal early but has settled down as of late. It’s still an adventure with Jones and the gang closing out games but the pen has been the least of their worries— the Tigers starting rotation has been brutal.
4. The Rotation: Justin Verlander is a proven commodity, but once you get past Verlander Detroit’s rotation is not that of a legit World Series contender. Dontrelle Willis is much too inconsistent, as his seven walks from this weekend demonstrated yet again. It may be time to fold em’ for Kenny Rogers. Jeremy Bonderman has shown an inability to develop a third pitch and has never had an ERA in a season under 4.00 as a result. Nate Robertson is a decent fourth or fifth starter but not somebody the team can rely on to be a stopper.
This area is the biggest surprise of all. The Tigers have had only nine quality starts in 38 games this season. In contrast, the Twins have had 18 quality starts. The Tigers ace Justin Verlander (6.43) and Nate Robertson (6.64) both have ERA’s over six. Kenny Rogers (5.82) isn’t much better with an ERA near six. With an ERA near five (4.82) Jeremy Bonderman has been their most solid starter. All of this adds up to a team ERA of 5.15. If the rotation doesn’t right the ship this team isn’t going to finish anywhere near .500.
If I were Jim Leyland and Dave Dombrowski I’d be real concerned. The acquisition of Miguel Cabrera doesn’t offset the weaknesses listed above. Even with the pickup of Cabrera there is no guarantee the Tigers will score as many runs as last year— with the career years Granderson, Ordonez and Polanco and the age of Pudge and Sheffield. To compound things the bullpen is weak and the rotation is at best middle of the pack.
This team is going to get awful old awful fast. Mortgaging the future by trading Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller may not have been the best idea. It seems hard to believe but when the Twins open their new park in 2010 the Tigers may be back in the middle of the pack.
The Tigers question marks still outweigh their phenomenal offensive potential. Their pitching has simply been atrocious and its been backed by an often brutal defense. Having Miquel Cabrera learn on the job at first base and moving Carlos Guillen all over the infield over the past couple of years is not good for continuity. The decision to make Gary Sheffield and everyday outfielder is even more confusing.
It’s going to be a long year in Detroit. This team is not a championship contender.